THE ELECTION
And just like that, the presidential election did not disappoint in terms of a macro-catalyst. The resounding republican victory for President Trump and the Senate, turbo-charged animal spirits, sending equity markets to record levels while government bond yields shifted sharply upward. Credit spreads tightened even further from historically low levels, and the financial sector saw outsized gains as investors anticipated less regulation, and a steeper interest rate curve.
As November rolled in, markets were muted before election day, especially with the FOMC decision one day after. On the Friday prior to election day, non-farm payroll data came in much lower than expected. Much of the “miss” was due to the recent hurricanes and port strike, but even stripping those away, it was weaker. Markets were focused on the close race, and the low probability of an election day winner. As a clear-cut winner emerged around 2am on 11/6th, equity futures surged, and bond prices fell sharply. The day ended with the S&P index higher by 2.53%, including a 3.57% increase in the DJIA. (Source: Bloomberg) Bond yields rose and the curve steepened. US 2-year notes rose by 8.5 basis points, and US 10-year notes rose by 18 basis points. Credit spreads tightened by 5 basis points despite already low risk premium spreads. The decisive win, the markets’ reaction, left some questioning the Federal Reserve’s current tact. Questions Chairman Powell would have to address one day after the election.
FED POLICY
On November 7th, the FOMC lowered the Federal funds rate for the second consecutive meeting. The smaller, unanimous 25 basis point cut was as expected, leaving rates at 4.5%-4.75%. The statement was mostly unchanged, citing that risks to their dual mandate goals were ‘roughly balanced’, and the labor market conditions have ‘generally eased’. They also decided to continue to reduce their balance sheet.
Comments from Chairman Powell included that inflation had eased substantially. Monetary policy is on no preset course and decisions would be made meeting by meeting. In the near term, the elections will have no effect on Fed policy. Overtime, it is possible that actions by congress could affect FOMC decisions, but predicting fiscal policy would not be a part of evaluating current economic data.
Equity markets were little changed post decision, and the day’s bond rebound moderated slightly. Market expectations remain skewed for another 25-basis point cut at December’s meetings.
MACRO/FIXED INCOME TAKEAWAYS
This Presidential election, for many reasons, has deep-seeded meanings to Americans. For markets, due to the sweeping victories in the senate and possibly the House, it may have more long-term ramifications. In addition, President-elect Trump has a market track record from his first 4 years in office. It is possible both equity and bond markets have already started wagering the speculation of pro-business and deregulation advantages of a republican president and congress. We think markets will re-focus on the fundamentals of the economy, as the economic cycle has always been more powerful than the political cycle. It is important to note, the FOMC was beginning to tighten rates in the beginning of President Trump’s first term. Currently, the Fed is on a path to a more neutral stance, meaning they still have an easing posture. While the timing is unclear, employment has slowed, and inflation has come down.
ELECTION ON THE MARKETS
Trump’s near-term focus may be immigration and tariffs. Time will tell what can be accomplished and whether tariff is more of a negotiation tactic between countries. Tariffs pose an inflation risk that could be mitigated by strength in the dollar, but a risk, nonetheless.
The market should continue to enjoy the independence of the Federal Reserve from political interference. It is possible if both houses of congress are in synch, the FOMC may need to become “policy dependent.” Chairman Powell is expected to stay in the office until May of 2026. Powell said he would not leave if asked by the President. He will be subject to “tweets” like last term. Interestingly, many of those tweets were asking for lower rates to boost economic growth.
Deficits may become the biggest political talking point, although both parties avoided it like the plague during their campaigns. The supply in the treasury market has clearly become more important to investors, as well as the auction results of new supply. As the FOMC has lowered short-term rates by 75 basis points this year, only very short maturities are lower this year (2 years and less). Longer term bonds remain approximately 50 basis points higher than where we started this year. While much of this is economic and inflation driven, it’s obvious there has been some “term premium” added to longer term US debt.
Break-down: the growing deficit is not sustainable, and buyers will demand more yield for an issuer with a chronic spending problem. While the fed has driven a good portion of the “curve-steepening,” some of the steepening is taking the form of a credit warning. It’s possible a united congress could address spending easier, and maybe Elon Musk could tackle some spending curbs!